Elements
The Elements of quant.
Built like Euclid’s Elements: a few definitions, then one proposition per page, each proved with a formula or a chart and closed with ∎.
Def.Definitions
- 1.Origin
- The point every quantity is measured from. Every curve on this site starts there.
- 2.Edge α
- The expected return of a strategy in excess of its benchmark.
- 3.Noise
- Variation with no expected value. It can look like an edge for a long time.
- 4.Null hypothesis
- The assumption that there is no edge, held until the data rejects it.
- 5.Half-life
- The time it takes an edge that decays at rate λ to lose half its strength.
- 6.Drawdown
- How far a portfolio’s value stands below its last peak.
I–VIPropositions
- IEvery edge starts at zero.Assume no edge until the data rejects H₀.Proposition · Proof · ∎
- IINothing moves without a cause.Every alpha names its mechanism and the condition that would end it.Proposition · Proof · ∎
- IIIEvery edge has a half-life.Edges decay, so everything is re-tested on every new window.Proposition · Proof · ∎
- IVThe rule decides, not the mood.Identical inputs give identical decisions.Proposition · Proof · ∎
- VSize is a dial, not a switch.Half-Kelly keeps three quarters of the growth for a quarter of the variance.Proposition · Proof · ∎
- VIRisk is measured continuously.Drawdown is recomputed against a limit set in advance.Proposition · Proof · ∎
And the laws of risk
The Four Laws of RiskRead ILosses are real.IILosses have causes.IIILosses can be stopped.IVRisk control is a loop.