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Philosophy · 02 of 06

paṭiccasamuppāda

Dependent origination.

Nothing arises on its own; everything arises from conditions.

ISutra

So, when this exists, this comes to be; due to the arising of this, this arises.

When this doesn’t exist, this doesn’t come to be; due to the cessation of this, this ceases.

— SN 12.21:1.8–1.9 · The Ten Powers · Linked Discourses (Saṃyutta Nikāya)

Translated by Bhikkhu Sujato (CC0), as published on SuttaCentral 11 Nov 2026

IIPrinciple

Every alpha must name the conditions that produce it.

A signal is admitted only with its mechanism: who is on the other side of the trade, why they accept the price, and what would make the effect disappear. If we cannot say what causes it, we cannot say when it will stop.

We look for causes, not just correlations — and we write down, in advance, the condition whose absence should make the edge cease.

IIIProof

corr(Xt, Yt) ≫ 0  but  corr(ΔXt, ΔYt) ≈ 0
Proof · correlation without a causeIllustrative · seed 35
corr(X, Y) = 0.81corr(ΔX, ΔY) = −0.01— X— Y400 steps · independent by construction
Two random walks generated independently — by construction, neither causes the other. Their levels correlate at 0.81; their daily changes at −0.01. A relationship you cannot explain by its conditions is not yet a relationship.